Weekly risk brief · No. 5
Strait of Hormuz runs at 13% of normal
85 weekly transit calls against a ~656 baseline; the Cape still carries 2.23× Suez's traffic.
Bosporus Strait is flagged watch at 76% of its 2024-25 baseline (503 against ~661 weekly calls). Strait of Hormuz is flagged critical at 13% of its 2024-25 baseline (85 against ~656 weekly calls). Kerch Strait is flagged critical at 17% of its 2024-25 baseline (11 against ~64 weekly calls).
The Red Sea corridor shows no structural change: 281 transit calls through Bab el-Mandeb in W29 (+55 on the week), and the rerouting index stands at 2.23, meaning the Cape of Good Hope carries 2.23 times the traffic of Suez. Above 1, the long way round is still the market’s default.
Movement of the week: Taiwan Strait, up 278 calls week-on-week; the sharpest decline is Malacca Strait, -83. The official picture: 7 security-relevant NAVAREA or HYDRO warnings active out of 386 broadcast (snapshot 2026-07-27).
On the wire this week, for context and unverified:
- Mounting Mideast Threats Deepen Oil Shipping Disruptions (rigzone.com)
- More tankers turn back as Houthi threat rattles Red Sea oil trade (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
- U . S . completes 13th night of strikes on Iran as Hormuz tanker traffic hits 2 - month low (sana.sy)
- Trump Warns Iran of Major Military Punishment After Houthi Tanker Attacks (gcaptain.com)
- Saudi oil tankers bound for China and India make U - turn after Houthi threat in Red Sea (livemint.com)
This issue was generated automatically from IMF PortWatch daily transit data, NGA MSI broadcast warnings and the GDELT wire, using the observatory’s published methodology. Figures are as retrieved on 2026-07-27.