Weekly risk brief · No. 3
Strait of Hormuz runs at 18% of normal
115 weekly transit calls against a ~656 baseline; the Cape still carries 2.2× Suez's traffic.
Strait of Hormuz is flagged critical at 18% of its 2024-25 baseline (115 against ~656 weekly calls). Kerch Strait is flagged critical at 44% of its 2024-25 baseline (28 against ~64 weekly calls).
The Red Sea corridor shows no structural change: 226 transit calls through Bab el-Mandeb in W28 (-12 on the week), and the rerouting index stands at 2.2, meaning the Cape of Good Hope carries 2.2 times the traffic of Suez. Above 1, the long way round is still the market’s default.
Movement of the week: Dover Strait, up 61 calls week-on-week; the sharpest decline is Taiwan Strait, -282. The official picture: 7 security-relevant NAVAREA or HYDRO warnings active out of 386 broadcast (snapshot 2026-07-16).
On the wire this week, for context and unverified:
- Hormuz Crossings Decline as US Renews Iran Blockade (oedigital.com)
- US expands strikes into northern Iran and disables ship trying to run blockade (naharnet.com)
- Centre asks shipping firms to stop deploying Indian seafarers on Strait of Hormuz voyages (newindianexpress.com)
- First Thing: US attacks tanker in continuing Iran conflict as Tehran releases US citizen (theguardian.com)
- Iran threatens to halt energy exports as US bombings, blockade escalate (wmur.com)
This issue was generated automatically from IMF PortWatch daily transit data, NGA MSI broadcast warnings and the GDELT wire, using the observatory’s published methodology. Figures are as retrieved on 2026-07-16.